Monday, December 12, 2011

Signs of economic malaise in the EU

One of the points I try to make in this blog is that the Lies that prop up mature Western democracies are coming to roost, first of all economically. I left Russia shortly after USSR fell apart. That collapse did not come about as a result of moral failures - they have been very long and depraved, but primarily for economic reasons. Cheap oil plus expensive competition with US military might under Reagan. The flip side is that countries that in many ways are moral, like US, are still subject to economic failure, as a result of corruption and over-reach.

First China, and recently the developing nations balked at investing in EU. US also is ruling it out (aside from our obligations through IMF work at least $109B).

The latest clue is from the Israeli Foreign minister. There is no reason to doubt we was not posturing, but sincerely speaking about his concerns to a domestic audience:
"One of our main efforts is to push Israeli exports to the rest of the world, because some 70 percent of Israel exports go to the developed world and we are trying to encourage exports to China, India and South America in order not to be dependent only on western nations," Steinitz stated.

Over the last two years Israeli exports to these nations have already risen by a third.

Nobody wants to invest in Europe.
Steinitz predicted that a European crash could cause a 5-10 year recession.
Tightening interdependence of EU-Britain, in absence of political unity, has been any of the causes of economic problems. It seems like reduced EU is doubling down on a proven loser of a strategy.

Do you ever read things, and wonder if the writer ever thought about what he was writing, and drew out the obvious conclusions, instead of leaving them like some over-ripe and spoilt fruit on the view?

Here's a bit from Reuters on today's push for tighter EU without Britain:

"From the German perspective, only by reforming economies, cutting social benefits and working longer would the indebted members of the euro zone and the single currency project itself emerges from the turmoil…"

Reading the following picture: Dieter is journalist working with Reuters in Darmstadt. Re-reading his comments (above), he turns and says with satisfaction: "If everyone could just be like us, ja, and work like us, ja, the world would be a better place, oder?"
It helps to have German relatives of friends to truly appreciate the above joke, but the point can be understood by considering the conceit involved. All that that we need to avoid future problems like this is for Portuguese, Italians, Spanish, and Greeks to be like ... the Germans.

What is easier to homogenize these disparate cultures and work ethics, or to manage individual exchange rates for each currency with the dollar and the yen?

If you think it's the former, Marxism is definitely for you.

Here's the preceding paragraph from the same article:
"Germany - Europe's biggest economy - was intent on changing the European Union's treaty to enshrine stricter budget discipline and penalties for countries that failed to adhere to them, to ensure there could be no repeat of the current crisis."

All these PIGS needed was strict discipline, and they will be in ordnung. Line up, schnell, macht schnell.

Because this is a young bong, I will explain my sarcasm here, this one time. Be careful what you wish for. Even if the Germans could dominate rulemaking in the new EU, do they want to find themselves in the role of enforcers and over-seers? There's already been plenty of serious talk about sending an empowered delegation from Brussels to 'manage' Greece, and possibly oversee other countries, and help them avoid sins of over-spending, or under-spending, or mis-spending. Whatever the collective requires.

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