Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The euro plunges faster than its support in EU

Below are comments from three analysts indicating the outlook for the Euro is totally negative:

“It’s hard to see a positive scenario for the euro,” said Kumiko Gervaise, an analyst in Tokyo at Research Institute Ltd., a unit of Japan’s largest online currency margin-trading company.
"Absent any commitment from the European Central Bank to buy more sovereign debt, I think the outlook remains weak for the euro," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at in Bedminster, New Jersey.

"The euro is unlikely to rebound in a clear manner unless the European Central Bank lowers its interest rate further and takes quantitative easing measures," said Yuji Kameoka, managing director of the investment strategy and research department at Daiwa Securities Co.

Don Surber cites the following averages for the support of euro:

41% want are content the way things are
42% want ideas behind the euro reviewed
12 % want to get out immediately
5% don't know

That means only 1 in 8 Europeans on average are in favor of action to get out from under a falling brick. The rest, minus the totally ignorant ones (5%), are evenly split between being content with status quo despite the warning signs, and another half want to think about it. Do they seriously think the bureaucrats in Brussels are going to review the raison d'etre in an honest way, which may result in conclusion that ideas behind the euro are fundamentally flawed? That the experiment is in danger unless underlying agreements can be re-negotiated? The only answer they can produce is the solution of doubling down on all the initial bets, and hoping that the magic of public ceremonies of commitment to fiscal discipline will by themselves cure unrelated, fundamental problems resulting from trade imbalances?

It's a sad spectacle there, across the pond from the US, but for me realizing the motivations of the players makes it more of a farce than a tragedy. After all what can be a more reliable than bad consequence from continuous self-delusion?

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