Saturday, February 4, 2012

Stable society with happy people

All philosophies have sought to describe societies, which are stable and produce happiness for the people.

The key question is the relationship of the society and the individual. The goal is to guarantee stability and happiness at the same time.

Utopian philosophies, including Marxism, have placed the society first, and relegated an ant's role for the individual. Socialism as well as Plato's Republic, Thomas Moore's Utopia, and Leviathan by Thomas Hobbes are Odes to the Ant Hill. These writers deluded themselves that their conceptions will provide for happiness, when even brief examination of their societies reveal individuals without rights or choices. Such people cannot be happy. These societies are dictatorships of one form or another.

John Locke started his consideration of the perfect society from the level of an individual. What are his Natural rights? By guaranteeing the rights of the individual he built up a conception of a happy society.

As Western democracies show, the 'pursuit of happiness' is not enough to make a stale society. There are always those who fail. Kind-hearted folks see that as an intolerable problem. They want everybody in the society to be happy, which is of course impossible. However much material and other benefits selfish individuality, closely connected with capitalism has brought it is not adequate to address a man's innate desire for universal happiness. This is an emotional drive, and there is no good emotional explanation that would allow one to accept inequality.

So, here's the dilemma. Those who start with consideration of society (top-down approach) can create a stable system, but it is a form of dictatorship. Those who start with consideration of the individual (bottom-up approach) ensure happiness of most, but not all people, and the resulting inequality leads to instability of the system.

Another way to describe this dilemma is to consider the differences of two terms, which are often used together - liberty and equality. I submit that (consistent with Lock's worldview) the only equality worth a damn is equality of liberty that is to say equal rights before the law, and the 'pursuit of happiness'. Equality that exceeds what is necessary to ensure liberty of each individual is a path to tyranny. Equality of outcomes, and 'social justice' and other forms of modern 'fairness' are Utopian concepts, on the road to dictatorship.

The preservation of rights of individuals is no longer seem as adequate in the Western societies. Embarking on a Utopian path is a sure way to lose all the benefits of the Western civilization, and may even destroy that civilization. The answer needs to be found quickly, because the West runs out of money and descends into one form of dictatorship or another.

Any suggestions?


  1. The best way to find an answer to the problem is to develop modern scientific approach to the analysis of the historical processes based mostly on the biological functions of an individual and the society structures.
    The old ideas are too primitive and should be developed properly within the mentioned theory
    Leonard Green

    1. Here is general approach to the modern theory of the society organization.
      The society goal: sustainable reproduction and fulfilment of its biological function.
      Major directions of the study:
      - realization and ability of the society structures to move to the Goal
      - realization and ability of human to fulfil his functions within the frame of the move to the Goal
      For moving to those directions the Nature uses the following mechanizm:
      - cognition development promoted by the immanent reactions to events and ideas
      - the same for the society structures
      - the same for human
      Tools of those mechanizms:
      - knowledge
      - the immanent reactions usage for moving to the Goal
      Deviations from the directions to the Goal cause those mechanizms and tools to correct the society movement and thus to provide sustainabilty. The organizational society form would depend on the deviations and corrections natural effort. The modern science could help with corrections. But it should be advanced and not primitive theory.
      Please respond with suggestions and critics.
      Leonard Green

  2. I agree with your premise, Leonard, to spread these ideas it would help to make them more formal. First, that could allow modeling of the past and predictions of the future. Second, it is important to be taken seriously by academics.

    Let me recap your specific suggestions. First, you suggest an evolutionary approach to understand how societies move towards specific objections. Second, describing how this goal is understood at the level of an individual and the society.

    Furthermore, it's important to consider the basis of knowledge and culture in understanding and the reaction to impending events at both levels.

    I am concerned about the idea that science can help society with corrections in moving towards its Objective. I see too much similarity between that and 'scientific socialism', which was used to justify the historical inevitability, and give the Utopia and modern facade. I think science can affect the knowledge and potentially influence the culture of a society, and through them, indirectly to affect the direction of change in a society.

    So far, I'm thinking of four variables; two pertain to the relationship between society and individual: lies and force, knowledge/culture of individuals that you suggested, and another one, which I call compliance.

    These variables have basic vector quantities: the first two are directed from the society towards the individual, the last two are similar quantities emanating from an individual and directed towards the society. Individual knowledge is the equivalent of lies (or uncommonly truth), while compliance is a measure of force. Compliance is an average measure of the extent to which the people in a society, accept its rules.

    1. Now I have to explain my initial idea (thanks to the System Theory scientists).
      I consider the two systems of the Society:
      - Society as a whole thing
      - Humans
      Each system has its own goal. That is very important for understanding how our society survived inspite of many awful problems.
      It survived because it has selforganizational abilities and used them in case of the stability loss. The society structures were created to support that function. So it's absolutely wrong to think that their function is only lie and force. Bless God that those structures were created and now they are developing.
      Another thing is our dream (Utopia) of the society without governing structures. In this case vectors of actions of those two systems would have the same directions which is impossible because they have different goals.
      However there is connection between the two systems and that connection implanted into the human unconciousness working very strong in some cases (like revolution).
      As for role of the science of the society organization, I agree. But do not forget the dreams (Utopia) represent the connection between two systems and work as a goals for the society movement. So the word Utopia is not appropriate here. I call such processes Immanent Common Reactions. So I would not play with simple variables now. We need to understand first the mechanizm of the Common and Individual reactions
      as a part of the cognition development.
      Leonard Green

    2. Our analysis of Reactions should be started with the Goals. Actually the society is one system with two levels which have different Goals.
      The Upper level has a Goal to support society stabilty: provide conditions for reproduction,
      coordinate resources and life conditions with the population needs, provide adaptation to life condition changing (note: it's abstract goal which is pretty far from what the governments are doing but here is deviation calculation would come)
      The Lower level (Human) Goal: to be happy including long life (endless- dream), healthy, love, be appreciated, able to survive in any conditions (dream), NO PRESSURE, feel friendship and support and be covered but SOMEONE who can resolve global society problems without pressure on him; the last one shows the connection to the Upper level.
      Some academics tried to prove that a human does not have survival instinct. That means that they can not find proof for the connection between the Upper and Lower levels of the Society. So the Reactions to the human life conditions plus the Reaction to the mentioned connection to the Upper Level = human survival instinct
      Leonard Green

    3. Actually the Upper Level is created by Human Survival instinct as a Common Immanent Reaction
      (collective consiousness). No mistery. It's like ants create the community and their structure with organizational structures.
      Nothing new.
      What's next? The Goals create MOTIVATION for the people activity. It's a central point of the theory. The activity caused by Motivation could be different and it depends on the situations (events, ideas) and carachteristics of people. So the Reactions would depend on four factors: Goals, Events, Ideas/Information,
      people Charachteristics. As soon as reactions
      has common social effect we can classify them
      based on the classification of Events, Ideas/Information, People Charachteristics.
      For example, let us say there is a governor whose motivation to move to the Upper Level goal is weak. What would be his own reaction to the Upper Level goal? Does he realize it? Does he have strong enough motivation to fulfill necessary functions? Is he able to fulfill them considering the fact that he doesn't have a proper knowledge and willing to have it?
      I think we can determine that type of governor
      (so we continue moving slow to the Reactions, Deviations, Conflicts and Corrections)
      Anything illogical?
      Leonard Green

    4. Some clarifications:
      -classification could lead to serious mistakes and could be used for some models but generally speaking the study of the image is preferable; but for Reactions it's good method because they have social/group features;
      - also Reactions depend on the following factors: Goals/Motivation, Events, Ideas/Information, People Charachteristics

    5. So let me summarize all the previous ideas.
      The Society supports its stability by the Common Society Immanent Reactions to the possibility of the stability loss. The Reactions could lead to the essential Society reformation in case of the serious threat to its stability determined by the trend of its state deterioration. Stabilty could be unreversable damaged for the separate nations but not for the Society as a whole which can experience just temporary deteriorations.
      The reactions depend on the understanding of the situations (Events) and leading groups activity with creating and spreading Ideas/Information and using Goals/Motivation and people level of development and cultural traditions. Leading groups - groups with high social activities (political parties, religious groups, financial groups, etc). Scientific groups are leading groups but not enough socially active now. The goal of the development is to inhance the science activity with the reformation process and first of all to deliver to public correct description of the situations, their analysis and recommendations. However the social science is very weak now which is a result of low level of the governing structures development.
      Convergation of all leading groups would depend mostly on the critical situations and cognition development. However the science should pursue its goal - search for Truth in the field of the Social Science (truthful description and predictions of all social events: political, commercial, financial, environmental, etc - and,`as a result, possible society reformations analysis and recommendations)

      So the Society stability gets restored but the quality and speed of it would depend on the mentioned processes.
      Leonard Green

    6. Practical application of the mentioned theoretcal ideas is the Worldwide Open Scientific Network design. The goal of the design is to provide open exchange of the ideas, research results, stimulate the research in the most useful for the world directions and deliver the results to the public to educate, help and create progressive worldwide view to be prepared for the future society transformation.
      The Network consists of three parts:
      - Scientific
      - Filter
      - Public

    7. However before going to the Network design it's necessary to clarify some features of the general society model (to determine the role of information as one of the major factors).
      First is WORLD STABILITY. It depends on the
      - ecological situations
      - life resources (including population)
      - internal risk level
      RESTORING FORCES/Common Immanent Reactions:
      - Motivation
      - Ideology
      - Knowledge
      - Force and energy to restore
      MOTIVATION: to keep ecological situation, life resources, internal risk level under control
      IDEOLOGY: social activity (level of movement toward the Goal/Motivation)
      KNOWLEDGE: to predict the situations and be prepared
      FORCE AND ENERGY TO RESTORE: population involvment and its ablility to restore

      The Model can not be split by countries.
      Lack of coordination should be considered as a part of internal risk level growth.
      This is a new approach to the general theory.
      All the mentioned restore forces are the society nature formation. Information/Ideas play essential role with their formation and go from the leading groups to the populations
      with some feedback (if there is a choice).

    8. Motivation naturally created the society organizational structure: governing groups came first - warriers and religios leaders.
      That structure was created to keep and enhance the power. Historically those functions became traditional. Political and religious view of life created Ideology to unite a nation.
      They served for the nation stability support. Next steps came with the scientific knowledge development. The economical leadership was created to organize the developing economy.
      Scientific groups served mostly for governing and economical leadership. However there was some level of independency. In the past it was sometimes dangerous for life. Now it's not so much dangerous though it still not pretty safe in the field of social sciences and other.
      So scientific groups are not active enough with the social leadership and can not be considered now as a groups responsible for Ideology formation. The Ideological leadership groups have knowledge of the general society processes. Population does not have that knowledge and not interested naturally to have it. For population is normal to resolve only its own problems and to be covered by leadership from outer problems.
      With the culture development religion gets partially replaced by jurisdiction and other social institutions. Though not properly developed country has strong old structure.
      If there is some religion strength decline, they replace it (or strengthening it) with similar ideologies (like communistic or revolutionary). If that does not help enough, they develop military function claiming that the nation is in danger. Developed countries also keep the traditional structure however economical leadership is stronger and religion leadership is weaker. Scientific goups here somehow included into the process though in kind of submissive manner.

    9. So finally we can see society governing structure:
      - government structure
      - business structure
      - religion structure
      and scientific structure at services
      The role of the listed structures for different countries is country specific.
      For example China government keeps business structure under control. For the developed country the situation is different. Arab countries are trying to put all the structure under religion control.
      Each responsible structure creates its own part of the Society Ideology and information to be delivered to the public. Scientific groups also add their part of information but do not effect much Ideology which is actually real power activity.
      Economical structure of the developed countries being mostly independent of government create the systems which have goals different from the General Society Goal/Motivation. Those systems could be very strong and effect the whole society structures.
      That could increase the risk of stability loss.
      So what could effect the whole Society Stability?
      - environmental threatening processes
      - lack of resourses
      - internal conflicts
      - low prepardness of the governing structures to support the dynamic stability
      - low qualities of the population
      The whole society stability would be reached if the countries would be able to provide their own stability without destroying the other countries stability and if the environmental situations would not be totally out of control. That does not mean that some countries specific governing structures look not developed enough like for example China's one. But if it can support the country stability without harm to the other countries,
      then it's normal.
      Note: government structure includes military structure which sometimes plays it's own role in the creation of Ideology
      We see that the governing structure is not oriented on the Society Goal directly; there are many deviations from the direct way to the Goal.
      So the quality of the governing structure,
      quality of the population are major for stability. The governing structures could have two major drawbacks :
      - low knowledge level to support stability
      - low interest level (motivation level)

    10. We can intererupt the flow of thoughts by the the following note: simple governing structures combine all the governing functions and so they are powerful but lead to the dictatorship with the piramidal structural form, population oppression and create threat to other countries; on the other hand the structures with distributed governing functions give more rights to the population
      but create some risk of stability loss for the world because business organizational structure is powerfull and sometimes pursue the goals different of the General Society Goal; another very important drawback of all the existing structures: shortsight vision and actions because in this case not Higher Mind controls the situations but just people who can see things inside their own life understanding and their own interest; that caused the fact that the governing structures can support the stability for the short time frame but do not care of the next terms; so the stability goes up and down and it's not the best way of its support;
      so we see two drawbacks of distributed functions; pyramidal structures are more dangerous from the point of view of human factor- their functioning depends on individual features which are far from Higher Mind; individual (it could be a group) is not able realize the problems of Higher Mind (General Goal) and has his own different goals; so he tries to resolve the problems by simple and cruel methods like war, population opression, etc to restore the stability quick without thinking of the results in the future and the impact on the whole world.
      Summary: all the existing systems are far from moving actively to the Goal of the dynamic stability beacuse of the not correct governing structures configuration;
      society activity depends on two major factors -population cognition level and governing structure configuration and functioning.

    11. Here is another summary.
      The Society has the following structure:
      1st (and really Higer Level) is population
      (sounds unusual!) because it created the Goal and Motivation to survive (it is most important Immanent Common Reaction - from subcounsiousness) and because its development determines the further structure organization
      2nd level is science/tech as another subsequent Immanent Common reaction (move to the Goal by the specific directions)
      3rd level is the general organizational structure which work with the global processes
      (government, religion, business, military).
      2nd and 3rd levels serve as tools for releasing and enhancing population energy toward the Society survival ( dynamic stability).

    12. The amount of the released and created energy should correspond to the amount of energy which is necessary to restore the stability.

    13. Now back to initial problem: providing the society stability using Immanent Common Reactions (ICR). Stability is permanent (in average) growth of the population activity to overcome existing, predicted and possible problems. it's historically proven that the only method to increase activity level is promoting proper motivation. Motivation of individual is personal stability and satisfaction with major ICR action (subconsiousness). Motivation should impove his stability and increase connection to the major ICR.

    14. Ideally his stability improvement should depend on his efforts to help to go to the Society Goal to provide its stability. But how to combine those two directions of development?
      The old forms of society resolved the problem by just disregarding working people motivation imrovement and instead by strong motivation of the pyramidal governing structure. As a result they lost stability or were very close to it rather often. New era of technology created an idea of possibility to improve personal stability and it caused huge wave of movement in that direction which is strongly developing now. But what's a role of the organizational structues with coordination of that movement with the movement to the Society Goal?
      Organizational structure distributed the functions and huge business structure can not lead directly to the Goal because it's more about the individual stability. Even military structure involved in the business and that could be dangerous. Governmental structures mostly busy with politics, military activity,
      social programs and in many cases has no essential control of the business and finance.
      Some eastern countries have sorta of pyramidal structures but involved in the modern business.
      So their governing has nature of individual (group) which can somehow improve working people motivation but very far of the movement to the Goal. So they have low ICR and it sometimes could lead to conflict with the other countries (it depends on the government individual features). It could take a century to convert those structures into advanced ones
      (Immanent Reaction of the movement to the better life would make a trick inspite of the low level of the population cognition).
      But advanced structures has many drawbacks and would continue their development to fight huge coming problems of globalization, environmental problems, political conflicts, wars, lack of resources, migration, terrorism,
      etc . The major negative features from the Goal point of view are the following.
      1. Business structure individual feature
      2. Military structure partially business feature
      3. Govermnent involvment into business structure
      4. Government: concentration on the current problems with not enough attention to the future because of the method of the government formation
      5. Some individual government features in connection to the method of the government formation
      6.Low government motivation to go to the Goal
      (long term dynamic stability) and accordingly weak strategy and tactics which is changeable with individual features of government

    15. General Idea of the future society transformation.
      The society now is not effective because there is no completely realized threat to its existance. However that threat is coming soon:
      as soon as human would be able to live up to 150 and more years, then multiplication would bring humanity to the catastrophic problem with lack of resources. That global problem together with other threats would stimulate the society transformation to more effectve forms which gradually eliminate chaos and bring the world to the rational policy. The process would begin in 21st century.
      The idealistic image of the most effective form is calculated world policy based on scientifically proven knowledge of the society activity, presentation it to public and
      proper motivation for movement in the right direction. To go toward that idealistic image it's necessary now to begin to work out the theory of such system.
      Leonard Green

    16. So we are at the starting point with the theory. We need to answer the question: how to avoid catastrophy?
      First response is to provide world stability with human activity intensification.
      It would happen naturally when the humanity would completely realize the threat. Fear and hope to survive would force people to save, replace, create resources and find tools for motivation of the right activity. It would require the society step-by-step re-organization to the form of the SMART society leading by people who act on the basis of the scientific calculations of the stability and use strong methods for motivation of population activity.
      Second major question: what is world stability?
      First response: ability to fight all possible threats and develop life (theoretically forever).

    17. Is that possible to measure it?
      Chances to survive and develop life should be higher then chances to perish. Then more then better. But difference increase leads to big efforts and resources spending. So there the rational thinking should be used.
      To estimate the world stability we need to create long list of positive and negative factors and compare them estimating their importance for the stability and chances of their occurences. As a result some kind of index system should be developed and used for periodical re-estimation. It not so important that there would be no accuracy. But the index system would allow to compare different situations on the same scale of judgement avoiding opposite ideology.

    18. To understand the factors affecting stabilty we need first to determine the functional structure of the society.
      Individ: to reach longevity, multiplication and personal stability
      Society structure: to provide society dynamic stability theoretically forever
      The structure includes
      - public (as a source of Immanent Common Reactions to provide society stability)
      - organizational structures (businesses, government, social organizations and groups) to direct Immanent Common Reactions;
      organizational structures fulfill two different functions: long term ruling and short term ruling; long term ruling leads to ideology creation and short term one - to its usage
      Another very important part of the society is system of interactions among all the society parts

    19. By the way an ideology is stable core of the Immanent Common Reactions.
      Now we have deal mostly with centralized structures which could be explained by fight between primitive capitalism with semi-feodalistic nations. Primitive (non-effective)
      capitalism works to convert semi-feodalistic nations to capitalistic and does it with the loss of opportunities to improve its own effectiveness. As a result some countries would go up and some ones would go down to support general world stability. After achieving some sort of equilibrium and essential loss of captitalistic strength with threat to world stability the new effective capitalism would be developed. Its structure would be different at the part of the leading groups which would be organized rationally based on the ideology of rationality.
      That kind of ideology would be reached by the scientific progress in the field of prolongation of active life, controlling human acftions, social science development, education, informational technology as a tool for public development and many other sciences.
      Rational organization of the leading groups would be based on distribution of functions among organizational and social groups to get most effective leadership.

    20. Speaking of rationality.
      It does not mean that we can control the natural process of the society development though we have to predict the possible history turns and try to be prepared.
      One more time of stability. The history shows that the society as a whole thing was surviving and developing for millions years. It happens because the society is searching for a way to prolong its existance as much as possible following the natural instincts of multiplication and survival ability growth.
      Stability is provided if there is no problem with resources. As soon as the threat of lack of resources becomes essential then the society feels the loss of stability and makes sharp turn with search and re-organization.
      As soon as risk of stability loss is growing, it's necessary to be prepared to the sharp turns. So predictions and correspondent ideology should be developed.
      Huge population growth and fast growth of human expectations of life leads to intensive search of way out of critical situations.
      There are three ways:
      -intensification of resources creation
      -population and its expectations growth limitation which is actually very difficult to achieve because it's natural process of development
      - rational proportion between population ability to find solutions and possibilities of resources creation

    21. So we come to the idea of the formula for the further society development:
      the rate of the population ability growth to create resources for life development should be higher than the rate of their consumption growth; limitation of the multiplication and consumption expectation should be minimized to avoid natural flow of life violation; however some minor limitations could be acceptable at the distributed functions of ruling based on the scientifically proven laws.
      Note: centralized structure includes government, active monoreligion, monopolies, military, financial and other powerful organizations; distributed ruling should eliminate personal/corporative priorities and follow the whole society priorities.
      The ideology of the such approach should be created. What factors could help moving?

    22. Actually there is one way.

    23. To understand the factors of the stability we need to determine goal oriented directions of development:
      - dramatical improvement of good working traditions combined with good cultural traditions
      - exponential growth of people creativity
      - exponential growth of usefull for the whole society activity

    24. Coming back I want to mention of the different possible scenarious of the stability formula work out. If any global catastrophies would happen (like greenhouse effect) and there would be critical lack of resources then short term loss of stability could happen.
      If by that time the modern capitalism would still continue fight with semi-feudalictic countries then restoration of the stability would take long time and fight could be fatal for big part of the population and culture.
      But stablility would be restored finally anyway excluding the case of the total humanity disappearing (like cosmic gamma-rays effect). If the modern capitalism would turn to
      new more rational phase then the loss of stabilty would be short or avoided. Major point here to have unified system by that time. Unification is going naturally to prepare the society to possible catastrophies and turning point would be multiplication problem because it would bring issue of survival very clearly.
      One more time of the major idea:
      the society and human formation depends on the situations with resources but not on the qualities of population; it's wrong idea to think that everything would be o'k if people would become finally smart; following such phylosophy we would think that we need thousands of years to get smart population which is able to provide permanent stability.
      Though clearing up people brain would be helpful but cultural traditions are more important. Altogether immannent common reactions would be developed properly in the face of the situations with life resources.

  3. Final. The change of the society formation depends on the following ratio: rate of natural resources growth to rate of consumption growth; if that ratio goes to its critical values then re-formation is developing toward more effective use of resources. Consumption growth is natural and could be limited at the special critical situations only. Moving force of transformation are immanent common reactions which depend on the population cognition and cultural traditions development. For example: the cognition function could be low but the habit to be hardworkers and have right moral could play major role; good habits not necceserily depend on the cognition function but they could depend on the historical conditions like lack of land for agriculture,smart religion , etc. The cognition function of
    the major part of the population is pretty low but they follow (with some resistance) the advanced populations unconsiously moving by the common immanent wish of better life.
    So the society unification which is necessary now to meet coming possible loss of stability with possibly coming critical values of survival ratio would save huge amount of resources. It would allow move to the next step of transformation. Thus we could expect two phases of re-formation:
    Phase I. Worldwide activity coordination development ( with minimal confrontation) based on the existing free market economy with some necessary regulations to prevent critical situations.
    Phase II. More effective economy with scientific methods of population activity stimulation

    1. For the first phase important to determine possible critical situations caused by lack of coordination and methods of the society chaotical movement limitation to improve survival ratio
      For the second phase important to find all major factors causing chaotical movement and subsequent methods of improving survival ratio;
      the major directions of search are the following:
      - diminish personal/group opinionated decisions at the level of the leading parts of the society
      - increase scientifically proven volume of the social information and its availability for population to move toward better ideology and decisions
      - find new methods of more effective population activity stimulation (including leading groups)

    2. It does not mean artificial systems design.
      It means search of the negative factors and guessing of the possible society movement at the critical situations or on the way of moving toward them

  4. So here is Conceptual Model of the society formation evolution. Collective Mind is Immanent Common Reaction of the society to life development. It works to minimize risk of the stability loss. (When there is contradiction between society consumption growth and life conditions then the risk grows). The Current Common Reaction is the current society movement which reflect the fluctuations of the risk.
    Minor re-formation is going permanentely and at the point of the critical global conflicts and threat to the risk growth reformation gets essential and global.
    All the Society reactions get to work through Worldwide Social Network . The Network proper development helps to stabilize the society movement. As soon as many social processes get scientific explanation the informational processes would be also properly studied and organized the way which could be helpful for the scientifically proven or rational society re-formation processes.

  5. A bit more on the conceptual model of the society re-formation.
    Immanent Common Reactions of the Society to life development work to make the society Current Reactions fast, strong and properly directed to restore the accepted risk of the society death i.e. permanent decline. As soon as the Society develops itself by experimental way of life study, then mistakes are inevitable and so the risk is always present. Some scientists think then the acceptable risk is constant. It's interesting idea but it should be researched. Such idea leads to the thought that we do have the same risk as people who lived at the beginning of homo sapience history. It's possible because evolution and adaptation slows down now. People are more vulnerable to life conditions change and their ability to survive is getting worse. However all these thoughts are doubtful. Ability to survive could be increased by science.
    As soon as the history proved that the Society is self-organized system then we can think then the risk is not getting permanently worse now. That's a major point to argue with people who stubbornly declare disorders and permanent decline era. More than that: the science achievements and first of all proper World Wide Social Network development could diminish the risk. Social Network based on the coming technology revolution could unite the world, develop understanding of life and proper Common Reactions.
    Major features of the Network: timely delivered truthful and easy understandable information with stimulation of population reactions.

    1. So Immanent Common Reaction of the Society to life or let us say "common instinct of survival" restors society stability keeping Risk of stability loss at the curtain acceptable level.
      For that it uses tools of selforganization.
      Major tool: intensification of human activity for stabilization. So human resource or let us say human capital should be valued for its ability to restore the society stability.
      That quality of the human capital should serve as major indicator of the society activity.
      (About stability loss: it would happen if the consumption of life resources would be more then quantity of the resources. Life resources include air, water, food, climate, etc )
      The human resource is activated by natural mechanizms like genetics, culture and also by creation of better conditions for leading parts of the society like scientific part and for population as a whole thing. As a result the society performs self-transformation to restore its stability.

    2. Now we can come back to the prediction of the society transformation in the future which would show us historical trend of its development.
      So we know that compensatory mechanizm provides society stability: if there is threat to stability loss, then the society activates people efforts to respond properly to the threat. We know also that the threat is getting much more global then it was in the past: greenhouse effect (ocean level rises by 1 inch each year), vulnerability to worldwide diseases is quickly growing (pandemics, allergy,etc), mass destruction weaponry could be available for terrorists, pollution of the nature and food could undermine people health,
      global financial crises could undermine economics, etc.
      So the society would respond to those challenges with dramatical transformation:
      it would stimulate people to increase the effectiveness of their activity toward the stability support by awarding them directly for the diminishing the risk of the stability loss. The governmental, scientific and other leading structures would be awarded for imroving people ability to bring their consumption with available life resources.
      It would be done on the basis of scientific calculations and so the leading structures would act on the scientific basis. Their formation would be similar to the scientific school formation without quick and sharp turns in the strategy and tactics which usually bring the society to multiple and life threatening mistakes.
      The companies which create damage to the stability would disappear. It does not mean that we would have centralized dictatorship.
      It means that we would have scientifically based flexible leadership which is able smoothly combine future needs with current needs. Now leadership is getting much more educated then in the past. But the science of the society re-organization is very weak now.
      As soon as that science would be created then the school of the society leadership would be created.

    3. Christopher,
      Thank you for looking at my writing.
      I respect John Locke's ideas of natural individual rights. More than that: my ideas based on such theories. The future society is not centralized dictatorship. It's scientifically leading society with people who get rewarded for their efforts by freedom and happiness. And leading parts of the society would be rewarded for organizing that and only that because it's a major factor which could increase society effectiveness to provide stability.
      It's my fault that I did not explain it clearly and simple. That society would have distributed leading functions (not centralized) and core of that would be a scienitific school which would work out general long time directions of society movement and general policies. More detailed leading functions would be distributed among specialized units (not only government).
      Leading system would be very wide and informal and go deep into society involving different areas of the people development (like teaching,
      medicine, religion, economics etc). As soon as people worldview would be changed, they would be more involved in the work of the leading system with their minds developed by scientific analytical history and inercommunications. Leading system would work for them and they would work for it.
      Now we are far from that: the science of the society formation is very weak; our history is far from scientific analysis and people live in the dark. But we have to go to mentioned directions because it's historically proven method. For example: capitalizm gave much more freedom to people to move to happiness.
      Notes. I understand your doubts very well;
      it's typical for people who live in developed countries to be scared by any ideas which even slightly remind them centrilized dictatorship;
      such people are so scared of it that even can not think of any changes to their relativily happy life. Unfortunately it's a bad sign and it goes along with falling birth rate.
      Such countries like India are open to new social and phylosopical ideas and their birth rate is high.
      I explained earlier that the society as a whole thing has its own laws which are diffrent from individual laws; individual is responsible first of all for his own life but the society is responsible for the prolongation of its existance; so the society should have its representatives like leading society system. It's obvious and historically proven. But the leading system should study the society laws and that is a big problem now.
      With the creation of the proper scientific school the leading system would be radically changed and would not have sharp policy change every four years with multiple mistakes; we would stop moving like blind kitties but we would get open eyes.
      So please open you eyes to the major idea:
      growing Human Capital or Resource (which is able to provide Stabilty) by Motivating all population (including leading parts) with freedom and happiness; if leading parts would be able to grow that capital then they would get more personal freedom and happiness
      Sorry for being so open with you but that is how real science should work.
      Regards Leonard

  6. Lukas, my notes are review and clarification of the theoretical science of the society economical and organizational system transformation in the far future. The goal of that science is the same as a goal of humanity: society movement stabilization to survive . That science considers multiple factors of the society development including social and political differences, desorganzation, cyclical collapses, catastrophies, science advances and many other things. And please remember that research of ways of survival is not only normative but imperative!
    That science is very complicated and did not work out yet. So please try to understand what it's all about instead of playing with words. It's too serious science and there is no room for playing games.
    Now let us go back to the science for people who want and able to understand it. So to find a way of the society movement stabilization it's necessary to develop Human Effectiveness or, as economists say , Human Capital. Capitalistic system, which is based, on the scientific discoveries, made the humanity much more energetic and effective but old style marketing system and slow development of many countries did not allow to re-direct society movement to the common goal - long term stability. As a result many society activities are not useful for stability. Also our society facing global warming (ocean level rises by 1 inch per year and theory of it did not completely work out) and not prepared to meet its possible consequances. The goal of the research is to determine the factors which could destroy the society stability and find the ways to overcome possible problems properly increasing Human effectiveness. Immediately clear that there is huge reserve of energy: efforts unification and education. Though the usage of it is very problematic because many countries are not ready for that reserve usage in full.