Russian plant in North Korea bears new fruit

The new North Korean leader looks decidedly chubby next to his lean countrymen.

This cherubic young man is the grandson of a Russain plant. I came across an interesting story in a biography of a Russian movie director, Sergey Solov'ev. Here is the translation:

"Stalin needed energetic, competent people - 'cadres' still determined everything... So, my father was sent to expand socialistic horizons in the East - he became the head of counter-intelligence of the army, preparing military operations against Japan. In particular, his immediate tasks included making Kim Il-sung an emperor of the North Korean republic. This perspective 'cadre' was grown somewhere in Siberia according to the desires of the leader (Stalin), and learned manners appropriate to the head of state, Marxism-Leninism and other invaluable skills - that was the task of a professional team under my father's supervision. During all the early parades and demonstrations after the war (WWII) in Pyongyang my father stood on the tribune next to Kim Il-sung, and waved his hand in greeting of freed Korean workers. With the future heir of the north Korean throne Kim Jong-Il, who was almost my age, also sometimes stood on the tribune, but not too long - they let us off to play. Later, my mother told me that during one of these national celebrations the frightened security came to my father: I had a disagreement with the heir of the monarchy; we fought, and was drowning him in a fountain. Little Kim's head, they said, was under the water, and he was blowing bubbles, my hands, blue with effort, were clenched on his throat - why I so passionately tried to drown him was a much of a mystery to me as anybody else.  All this was told by my mother. Although, I remember our house in Pyongyang very well."

It is well known that the recently deceased leader Kim Jong-Il was born in Siberia. The fact that Russians trained the original 'Dear Leader', who's still technically in charge of North Korea, is well known. It is an interesting personal confirmation of the Stalinist training.

The cult of the Kim family invokes them coming from the sacred mountain in Korea, not Stalin's training camp. It is very interesting how North Korea has taken the religious zeal of the latter years of the Stalinist regime and pushed it to its logical conclusion turning a secular communist state into a theocratic one, based on divinity of the ruling family.

Has Sergey Solov'ev felt some foreboding of where the little ruler was headed? All languages have a saying about children being soothsayers - they have not learned the benefits of lying. The fight probably has a very mundane explanation, but it's tempting to think that this child instinctively saw something brewing in the future dictator.

Another notorious 'leader' trained by the soviets was Yasser Arafat. He was instructed to 'lie, lie, lie' when pressed by his Russian handlers. What a legacy my motherland has left the world.

The Western nations, as well as South Korea, favor normal relations with the nepotistic regime that builds nukes, while starving its own people. It's quite clear that the grandson of the 'Dear Leader' will bring more suffering to his people. To emphasize stability on the Korean penincula over justice is a weak and cowardly toleration of a horrific regime. North Korea has recently asked for food assistance and the international community is likely to provide it, as in all previous cases. It seems that a young child alone knew what to do about North Korean leadership.

Riding out the perfect storm of 2012

To weater the gathering perfect storm US needs to keep to minds its business, and avoid adventures into the turbulent waters abroad.

In the ocean, rogue waves form where strong ocean currents intersect, but they can travel too. In the air, collision of highly mobile weather systems over weather can produce perfect storms. These are less regular than ocean currents, but the presence of several intense systems is good indication of trouble.

Economic and political trends going into 2012, show a similar presence of multiple intense 'systems':
Europe is likely to undergo protracted political and economic slide, and will be very needy and self-centered.

Middle East has given rise to the Arab spring, with hopes are being replaced by harsh realities. In most countries where new situation is possible: Tunisia, Lybia, Egypt the democratic forces are weaker than either Islamic factions or the military. Terrible pictures from this weekend in Egypt prove, among other things, that the interests of military are not identical with those of the democratic forces, or the public at large. During Lybia's civil war there a wave of refugees set of for Europe. In fact, the whole point of US military intervention was to help Europe manage a military and immigration situation on it's periphery. Europe will be less able to provide US assistance with continuing trouble in the Middle East as their intense economic difficulties.

In Asia there are new realities that spell trouble. A newly assertive China has recently launched a refurbished Russian aircraft carrier. Even Vietnam turned to US recently asking to help safeguards it's rights in the South China Sea, which China's first step to re-establishing itself as a maritime superpower centuries after their great exploration came a sudden stop. We could expect the same from the new China, as the old:
In 1405, the emperor Zhu Di who recently usurped the dragon throne needed to legitimize his rule and sent out a great maritime expedition led by his talented slave who became a navigator: “Zheng He has been sent overseas with gifts to declare my will. It is forbidden to bully small and weak nations”.
Officially, the maritime expeditions sought peace and friendship, but in reality achieved economic and political domination wherever they passes. “The Chinese simply arranged to replace unfriendly leaders in countries where they encountered difficulties with someone willing to trade on their terms”, summarized Louise Levathes in her book 'When China ruled the seas'.

North Korea's old leader Kim Jung Il finally died today of a heart attack. He's been replaced by his unknown play-boy son. Recently, South Koreans expressed their fears that passing of the old leader could lead to instability. North Korea is one of the most repressive nations on earth, John Bolton correctly called it 'a horrible nightmare', and this is one of the few instances when some change in that horrible situation is possible. Forgive me, if I don't pine to status quo with any zeal. Of course, destruction of the nepotistic Stalinist regime could be a very, very painful process.

Russia is in revolutionary throes. The most likely outcome appears to be increasing modern, non-lethal repression and victory of Putin in March's elections. His angry and provocative disrespect of demonstrators is increasing the scepticism of the weary public beyond thresholds which even the stout Russian soul can tolerate. It likely outcome, is a restive populace fighting modern surveillance and repression through demonstrations, and civil disobedience. The opposition to Putin is committed to non-violent means, but the question remains can they make it impossible for him to govern?

Iran has delivered a public humiliation to Barack Obama and his administration by belittling his pleas to get RQ-170 spy plane back. Given the relationship between the countries, and the spying on Iran the drone was likely involved in, there was absolutely no reason for US to subject itself to this humiliation. On top of an intelligence and technology fiasco, it gave the perception of impotence which is very dangerous in the region. Besides, do we need to give mullahs any more confidence, while they defying the world to build nuclear weapons? Iranians have recently flaunted on of their cards by holding an exercise to close the straits of Hormuz, through which a thirds of the worlds oil is shipped.

Israel is surrounded by Hizbollah, Hamas and it's ally Palestian Authority, an increasingly hostile Egypt while threats Iran makes periodic threats of annihilation. If Israel is forced to acts against Iran without direct involvement by US things would be very ugly.

United States will have to deal with a lot even before elections in presidential elections on November 2012. We can expect no leadership from Obama. I foresee a sole exception: Obama may allow an Israeli strike on Iran in the late summer of 2012, not to help Israel, but to score political points. The Supreme Court is going to rule on Obamacare in the summer, in the heat of the political battles. Things are getting hot. And we need a cool-headed leader. Recently, I wrote an article explaining why think that Romney is be the best candidate in 2012 GOP field. Romney has strong credentials and interest in domestic politics. He is relatively weak and disinterested in foreign relations.

Considering the gathering perfect storm of 2012 I see Romney more favorably because of this limitation.

With the exception of Iranian crisis, the best strategy for the US is to get its own house in order and away from the world's troubles. The world will long for the good old days of 'US hegemony', when it tried too hard to solve the worlds problems. The war in Iraq is a sad example. For the cost of hundreds of billions and several thousand lives of US armed forces, what have we achieved?
We removed a major counter-weight to Iran, and replaced it with a democracy which is already under Iranian influence.

Syria. There little motivation for US to get involved with Syria. After all US got involved in Lybia's conflict to help Europe (primarily Italy) secure its borders against refugee flux, not Lybia's quest for self-determination. I am not suggesting any military involvement in Syria, but taking a clear moral stand. Even the dictator's club of Arab league has denounced Assad more strongly that US under Obama. Obama's term was very expensive for the US, and abroad; nobody can afford another.

To weather the coming perfect storm US needs to forgo invasive foreign policy and simply get its economy in order. Meanwhile, we should express outrage against violence in Egypt, and ballot stuffing in Russia, etc. but limit ourselves to the right words, even if the world burns around us.