What peace treaty?

The power in Egypt still lies with the military junta, which is composed from remnants of the Mubarak regime. This government has initiated a crisis with U.S. over some American workers and funding for NGOs.

Egyptian judges have referred 16 Americans and 27 others linked to NGOs for trial, accusing them of using foreign funds to encourage disruptive protests. Among the targeted NGOs whose assets and funds have been seized are the U.S. government-funded International Republican Institute and National Democratic Institute.

Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood that has won 3/4 or the lower Parliament want to show its enmity to the U.S. as well. MB lawmaker Essam el-Erian told the pan-Arabic al-Hayat newspaper that any reduction in U.S. aid to Egypt  would violate the U.S.-brokered 1979 peace agreement with Israel. In other words, while the military junta has unlawfully detained Americans the Muslim Brotherhood has the audacity to blackmail the U.S.!

Since the ouster of Mubarak, Egypt has become the patron of Hamas (taking over from Shiite Iran) and has treated Israel as an enemy. The military junta, the Muslim Brotherhood, indeed the majority of Egyptians, want to 'reevaluate' the the peace treaty. For all practical purposes the treaty is already null and void. The irony is that there's little to gain, but a paper promise.

Last Sunday a great Mideast expert Barry Rubin, who is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center in Israel, wrote in a column explaining the Egyptian brinkmanship:
“This is only the beginning of the anti-American populism/nationalism/Islamism we are going to be seeing in Egypt from now on.”  Rubin also predicted: "The Obama administration’s bluff is already being called. If trials go forward — and some compromise might be found to save face for both sides — will the Obama administration cut off aid or is it bluffing and will back down? I’ll bet on the latter, and that will send a real message to every radical in the region."

It took only a day for this prediction to come true. Obama's budget released the next day (Monday, February 13th) proposed continuation of $1.3 billion in aid to Egypt, despite outrageous behavior of its rulers.

I wrote about a week ago that Egypt is following in the footsteps of Iran. Needless to say, I agree with Barry Rubin's projection for the trajectory of Egypt, and his assessment of the dire consequences. I don't think the Obama administration even attempted to bluff denying U.S. aid to Egypt. There's a lot of grumbling in Congress, and the U.S. State Department made some threatening noises about the funding, but it never rose to a high level that would prove the Obama administration even attempted to bluff. That would reveal that not everything is going well with the Arab spring.

Yesterday I wrote about the costs of Obama's appeasement for the region:

What can the Obama administration do, facing a failure of its policy in Egypt? Simple - the White House refuses to acknowledge the reality.

The political costs of acknowledging the utter failure of his policies prevent Obama even from bluffing to influence Egypt's behavior. He will gladly pay Egypt to avoid acknowledging the reality that his foreign policy has produce another Iran, and that Egypt is already not honoring its peace agreement with Israel.

Costs of appeasement in Egypt

History repeats itself. First, as a tragedy, then as a farce. Both can be entertaining, and engaging. What do you do, when the pattern is so clear that neither tragedy nor the farce holds any allure? I wish I knew, because it would give me some enjoyment in writing about many of the current events. A lot of current events are like a train-wreck in slow motion - they make me want to avert my eyes.

Almost two months ago Charles Krauthammer wrote a piece entitled "The wages of appeasement" about the failure Obama's policies in Russia and Iran. These policies of appeasement went under the euphemisms of the 'reset' and 'negotiations without preconditions', respectively.

While enemies of U.S. foreign policy were appeased, our allies, like Israel or nominal allies in the war on terrorism, like Pakistan and Egypt, were treated like vassals. The situation with Israel, deserves it's own description, and I'd like to focus on Egypt.

One of the sad analogies between the past and the present in the rise of Islamism in Egypt that follows the pattern in Iran. Unfortunately, President Obama's response is very similar to that of President Carter - appeasement. In the Middle East people 'bet on the strongest horse', as Osama bin Laden described it. In that region appeasement is simply an admission of physical weakness, not ethical or psychological strength.

The situation with American citizens who worked for NGOs in Egypt provides clear evidence that Egypt is choosing Islamism over development. Some U.S. citizens from leaving the country, and charging them with running un-sanctioned NGO with a penalty up to five years in prison.

After a number of U.S. senators have expressed concern about these events and announced that $1.3 billion dollars in annual aid to Egypt may be in jeopardy, the outraged Egyptian delegation has cancelled the meeting with U.S. Senators Carl Levin and John McCain, the Democratic chairman and ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, among others in Congress this week. This is an egregious diplomatic slap in the face that shows Egyptians have no interest in attempting to normalize relations.

What can the Obama administration do, facing a failure of its policy in Egypt? Simple - the White House refuses to acknowledge the reality. In the proposed budget for next year, the $1.3 billion of aid to Egypt is preserved as a separate budget line (which makes it technically simple to eliminate). In addition Obama calls for more than $800 million in economic aid to help Middle Eastern countries swept by "Arab Spring" revolutions.

The billion with change in aid to Egypt helped to maintain peace between Egypt and Israel, and provided U.S. some leverage with Mubarak. Now, this money can only buy us Egyptian scorn. This situation is similar to the Iran-Contra affair. In early March of 1987 President Reagan had admitted on national TV that "what began as a strategic opening to Iran deteriorated, in its implementation, into trading arms for hostages".

While rewarding Egypt's behavior with the continuation of U.S. aid does not rise to the same scandalous level as Iran-Contra, the futility of appeasement is certain. Regardless of the administration in charge, the political wages of that kind of strategy is such a historical truism that it seems tedious even to write about it. It doesn't matter which U.S. party is to blame. The real issue is the cost for the region and the world. Iran, the first modern Islamist state, is providing an example of good example of the extended consequences of President Carter's myopia. Similarly, Obama's appeasement of the 'Arab Street' in Egypt has resulted in replacement of authoritarian Mubarak regime with Islamists. Egypt is the most populous Arab country, which is becoming the second Islamist state.

So, whether U.S. wastes money on Egypt, while the latter chooses to imprison the American NGO workers is relatively insignificant - the latter is merely a symptom of the disease, which Obama has promoted and is now pretending does not exist.

Egypt follows Iran's path

Barack Obama started his foreign policy in 2009 with a world-wide apology tour (here are some clips). Before Obama delivered his speech in Cairo, Mitt Romney warned about the fallacy of apology:

I draw the line by saying in reaching out to other nations we certainly should not stand up and apologize for America. America has sacrificed too much to restore liberty to people in the world to ever be in a position of constant apology. I think the president was wrong in going on Arabic TV and saying that America has in the past dictated to other nations. I think he was wrong in fact and that it was the wrong thing to say. Ahmadinejad of Iran seized upon that to demand more apologies for America....

Two days later, on June 4th 2009, Obama delivered a sweeping, hour-long 6000-word address in Cairo, Egypt, aimed at reaching out to the world's 1.2 billion Muslims. Some, including Rush Limbaugh have called it an apology speech, others like NY times have disputed that assessment. Here are three quotes:

The attacks of September 11th, 2001 and the continued efforts of these extremists to engage in violence against civilians has led some in my country to view Islam as inevitably hostile not only to America and Western countries, but also to human rights. This has bred more fear and mistrust.

Likewise, it is important for Western countries to avoid impeding Muslim citizens from practicing religion as they see fit – for instance, by dictating what clothes a Muslim woman should wear. We cannot disguise hostility towards any religion behind the pretense of liberalism.

America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election.

The first quote suggests an understandable rise in American misconception of Islam, if not outright bigotry. The second quote is directly applicable to France, which passed a ban on wearing burqas in public that went into effect in April of last year. Apparently, the French are trying to "disguise hostility towards any religion behind the pretense of liberalism".

Hosni, I'm going to have to throw you under the bus.

The last quote has a direct bearing on the Arab spring. A little over a year ago Obama called on Mubarak to leave by announcing publicly that he told on the phone that "transition must begin now". Obama also expressed his hope that Egyptians will "seize the promise of a better future for your children and your grandchildren and I say that as someone who is committed to a partnership between United States and Egypt".

Mubarak was an authoritarian dictator to whom FDR's statement "he might be a bastard, but he’s our bastard” is applicable. Arab spring has replaced him with something far worse - approximately 3/4 or the People's Assembly, the more powerful lower parliament of Egypt has been taken by Islamists. They are already changing the direction of the country.

Mubarak was an authoritarian dictator to whom FDR's statement "he might be a bastard, but he’s our bastard” is applicable. Arab spring has replaced him with something far worse - approximately 3/4 or the People's Assembly, the more powerful lower parliament of Egypt has been taken by Islamists. They are already changing the direction of the country.

Recently, 19 Americans who worked for NGOs in Egypt were prevented by the military from leaving the country. They have sought refuge in the American embassy. This elicited a response from the U.S. State Department, which said the $1.3 billion in annual aid to Egypt may be in jeopardy. One of the Americans, Sam LaHood is the son of U.S. Transportation secretary, said at the time that the group was "expecting the worst". His instinct was correct - Egyptians have announcing their intention to prosecute the American NGO workers that can result in sentences of up to five years. In addition, Egyptians canceled meetings with U.S. lawmakers today in response to warnings about aid.

As I suggested ten days ago, Egypt appears be going Islamist and is following in the footsteps of Iran, including detention of Americans. There are other worrying signs, described by Barry Rubin that suggest the new Egyptian regime is choosing confrontation. Having the U.S. as a scapegoat for internal troubles is apparently worth more to them than Obama's speeches, and billions of aid.

Jimmy Carter's second term

Jimmy Carter oversaw an ally or US in the middle East, Iran, become an Islamist dictatorship. To patch things up he sent a delegation of 52 US diplomats, who were held hostage for 444 days - until the end of Jimmy's term. (They were released on the first day of the Reagan administration).

Barack Hussein Obama has been said to be serving Jimmy Carter's second term.

Initially it was folks like the  Tea Party making such comparison, then Fox News picked up on in. Lately this comparison has been made by dour New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, a liberal stalwart and a champion of Obama's election. In her column on July 30th Dowd said that both exhibited ineffectual management style as they presided over economic and energy crises. She also brought up the poor public opinion and compared Obama's apology tour in the Middle East to Carters handling of the Iranian hostage crisis.

Now we can add more detail to Maureen's list. Obama exacerbated the energy problems in USA by rejecting the Keystone pipeline, which would have facilitated distribution of Canadian oil and huge gas deposits in the American northwest throughout the US.

The latest comparison is between Egypt and Iran. Almost a year ago Obama threw Hosni Mubarack under the bus, in the same way Carter undermined the Shah or Iran. Mubarack was a flawed, but secular ally of US in the Middle East. Sadly, the results are very similar. Islamist parties recently won nearly 3/4 of Egyptian parliament, ensuring that Egypt is going to become another Islamist country. The only difference is that Egyptian Islamists are Salafist and Sunni, while Iranian are Shiites.

A disturbing reminder of this similarity that motivated me to write this piece, is the treatment of Americans in Egypt. We're recently learned that several Americans were barred from leaving Egypt last weekend. They include Sam LaHood, son of the U.S. Transportation Secretary, who said they are facing five years in jail for working for unregistered non-government organizations. LaHood, who was the director of the Egyptian program for the International Republican Institute (IRI) said: "We're kind of expecting the worst."

The United States said Egypt should release them: “We are urging the government of Egypt to lift these restrictions immediately and allow these folks to come home as soon as possible,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said.

The US State Department officials said it was the first time in three decades that US military aid to Egypt ($1.3 billion per year) was at risk.

Although Egypt is hurting financially, and has recently asked IMF for a $3.2 billion loan, I sense that the desire of newly empowered Islamists in Egypt to put a finger in the eye of what Iranians call "the great Satan" will prove greater than their need for US money.

Sensing this embarrassment three major beltway lobbyists, who have received over $4 million for representing Egyptian government since 2007 have chosen to drop Egypt as a client.

Lacking any sense of irony, Jimmy Carter recently offered Obama advice on how to win reelection: don't alienate voters in the first term.

It's too late for that. It would be more appropriate for Jimmy to speak from experience and console Obama on his impending loss in the November 2012, by saying: "If you wait long enough, Barry, another liberal will come to serve out your second term."